Immerse yourself in Crisis (February 12, 2009)
2009: year of suffering. Everybody talks about the crisis. The crisis began long ago, and now we suffer the immediate consequences. Left the United States and Europe allungatasi until now spreading quickly around the world, significantly slowing the economy even more vivid. Of the dangers, many and great, it is spoken every day in all print publications, on the news, on the Internet, ranging from the more apocalyptic predictions conspiracy theories (which claim that in reality there is no crisis, and that everything has been engineered to use the usual powerful). We ordinary mortals, alas, we must be content with what we see, and we can not trust the great economists' forecasts, which predicted all but the current crisis. Better then to focus on the opportunities offered by the new situation. What are they? There are practical things that can make life easier for a company in crisis? As you would expect, there are no clear answers, no magic formulas, but what remains still valid is the application of the dear, old common sense.
So, let's see what the experts suggest.
The Economist, for example, claims that in 2009 there will be a sharp, drastic turnaround in the business organization of large groups. This also reflected the influence of smaller facilities. Lucy Kellaway, a special edition "The World in 2009" says that the new year will see the rise of the irrepressible chief financial officer (CFO or Chief Finance Office) within the corporate pyramid, and the relative importance of the CEO in fall , manager of marketing and head of HR (human resources, or human resources). All true: 2009 will not be the year of creativity and advertising, but rather cuts to the personal and pragmatic decisions to "the supreme savings. This, at least, with regard to reality "heavy", companies who are not very slim.
Economist Always, always remaining within the reduction, Lionel Barber provides for the return of the gentleman banker and the growth of "boutique banking" (the small banks that have a good capital base). Other provisions: the growth in importance of microcredit in the Third World, the rise in cereal crops, a renewed importance of food and found the resulting balance between food product and food consumed, even with a predominance of the first factor, which probably generate a return at market prices popular.
At the same time, multinationals in the chemical industry continues its aggressive strategy of conquest to sell their herbicides, some of them banned in many Western countries. This is already generating considerable distortions: the Government of the Kingdom of Thailand is trying to pass legislation that would reclassified to the rank of "dangerous products manufacturing subsidiary" 13 plants used by farmers to replace the more expensive (and infinitely more dangerous and polluting) chemicals. Among these substances, lemongrass, ginger, chilli pepper. As evidence that information was also produced positive results, the poor Thai farmers have already organized in peaceful demonstrations. The law, if you will, will only do so after due consultations. We see instead
what is expected with respect to the metals market. With breakdowns in the West and the East is slowing down, the transport sector and the construction industry will only stay on that "yes" to the minimum levels are just seated. With the exception of 'gold, all other metals will fall further their market prices. South Africa will continue to pay the energy consequences of the disaster happened in 2007. Chilean mines also face a similar problem. The price of iron will fall further, reaching the $ 65 per dry tonne. Aluminum and copper will drop by 25% and 19%. This is not the best time to buy.
The council, in most cases, is not to experiment, to leave the company's reins in the hands of the master, who, in close collaboration with the finance office, staff will decide what to keep and where to cut costs. Not surprisingly, in Italy, the first companies to suspend activities were those related to the design of automobiles. Creativity is the last of the priorities in these difficult times.
is strongly recommended the work of "thinking outside the box" (think outside the box), giving priority to schemes established players.
All these have certainly a strict logical sense, and may be justified by the concept which I mentioned at the beginning: common sense. Or would they? Sense necessarily mean trust the obvious and remind the dogmas of the past? Common sense should also mean "we learn from the mistakes of the past." In this case, for example, should lead us to think with our brains, rather than inside or outside the box. When we trust the thinking of others, we often had to change his mind, and this crisis should be the point at the end of a long paragraph written by the great economists. In the Internet age there is no economist can predict the unpredictable. There is no politician who can lead the indirigibile, there is no economy that can protect a whole market now exploded and then imploded. In 2009 means courage and common sense pragmatism. It means thinking with your brain and forget about everything box and diagrams. In an economic climate where to fall in a noisy are those institutions that everyone's eyes seemed indestructible until only a few months earlier, what matters more than ever, creativity and imagination. In addition, a fortiori, should be the very small to medium businesses looking for new methods of resistance to the pressures of the big ones. Is not it time for acquisitions, it's time for alliances. No time to oligopolies, it's time to up production and complementarity. is these elements that must be looked for optimization methods. The new globalization has as protagonists the multinationals, but the production areas, the key is regionality. The savings is minor radius of transport, the resources are local, human resources are those available in the area. It is not true that the West must become a world of services, because it is the West to have more need than ever for those industries that have now almost entirely exported to the East. We must bring them home, because it is hypocritical to complain about the lack of environmental rules in China's rampant, when we could be with us to produce high environmental standards. It is even more pointless to note that Beijing is very polluted, when Italy is among the last countries in terms of energy innovation and research in the field of green energy. Energy Innovation, Energy Green, Sustainable Economy: these terms should be mandatory in all sectors of industry and commerce. Without these, there is no progress. The East is going through in a few years all that we have experienced in 50 years of turbulent political history, social and economic life. It 'just that Europe seeks to moderate the tone, but to do so must first find its moral dimension, which now can be done only through the strict implementation of new ecological systems. There is not even a real choice, there are other options, it is just to get there as soon as possible, to do so quickly. Coming first will earn more. Ecology no longer means fighting radical few activists, it means saving energy and money on innovation. It means giving the market what the market needs. It means more than ever, marketing and advertising, in alliance with the world of entertainment. The image of eco-friendly can not and must not be relegated to the world dell'attivisimo, but rather to fashion, music, entertainment. People who do not adapt to the new mentality must feel antiquated, and to use a term up to date, "suckers." The product with minimal environmental impact should be coveted and sought after, must be linked to the image of design and exclusivity. Only in this way will it attract the attention of the masses, and become as a result of a popular product, the new standard. If it is true that this crisis is a conspiracy, I hope (and there are reasons to think that this is possible) that the person who has concocted just this in mind: to overthrow the old order of things to give the world a cutting environmental . A great opportunity!
points:
1 - Idealization of the product label. It 's a question of image, the image is the only universal instrument to convince the buyer. The quality is only second. Example: the attempted introduction of electric cars in the United States in the late 90s was a failure, while Toyota's hybrid engine was a success. Why? The U.S. electric car was ugly and was proposed as a cost-saving product. The hybrid, in contrast, was introduced immediately on a Lexus SUV, creating the paradox SUV = ecology. The Lexus hybrid, moreover, is even faster and more aggressive than the traditional engine. People now look at the hybrid engine as a status symbol. As soon as the engine will be available for more affordable models, sales will rise.
2 - Empowerment of Human Resources. In recent decades it has established a working style revolves around the figure of the winning manager. Multinational companies have merged together and created a market for super manager shame, gentlemen paid salaries unimaginable that they could afford absurd decisions without fear of having to pay for their mistakes. This method has proved to be wrong, and indeed it is already changing. I allow myself to go further. Also I believe the world of research and creativity must adapt to the new climate. In a country like Italy, where the search is mistreated, the researcher, the developer of products, the designer must not only cooperate with companies, but must do so in a responsible manner, making partner of the firm whenever possible. This will happen especially in small to medium businesses.
3 - New realities of pay. Italy is long overdue. The salaries are among the lowest in Europe, and it certainly will not change in 2009. Again, however, we may have an advantage from a certain point of view. First, we should rely on the discourse base salary = competititività market. Second, in a world market now where the progress of the economy plays in the East, it may be more likely to lower wages in other European countries, compared to a race to the top by the Italians. Thus, if we could at least keep the salaries at the same level, even in the case of an aggravation of the crisis, we could improve our competitiveness.
4 - Elasticity of investment according to regional opportunities. Think European, act local, this should be the motto. But in doing so, we can still afford to take advantage of the Schengen area. While the product ecology can and should be financed from funds for research, it is also true that they can not have the funds available in your country of origin, it is right to consider investing in environmental activities in other European countries that offer subsidies in this field. In this way, you will get all the effect of promoting environmental policies, forcing governments that do not fit the trend to adopt similar measures. Only then will the investment return.
5 - The global fear. We really have to fear the East? China, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, represent a serious danger for Europe and the West? Sure, but only for a reason. We need not fear imports and competition, but we must be very frightened moral influence on our world of work. Asia means more corruption, structural and otherwise. Corruption of all kinds, and at all levels. From the political to commercial, from the private to the public. No doubt that corruption work and produce work that builds and fosters corruption, certainly not without hope of standing kleptocracy in Africa. But still corruption, which carries a strip of stinking pollution, filth, poverty, exploitation, contaminated milk, death, destruction. Which the effects of corruption, because of new distribution networks, spread instantaneously around the globe. Europe does not need it. We already have our corruption, we have all our pollution, real and metaphysical. Our waste we have already breathe, and then for years we have exported to poorer countries. This is our corruption, that moves, with his entourage also mephitic emanations. Over time we improved. Now, a tragedy like that of the milk scandal unlikely to happen even the Sicilian mafia. Environmental organizations held under strict control the flow of contaminated materials, making it more difficult (but unfortunately not even impossible) the shame of the international trade in waste. Despite all this, however, the Western businessman seems to have no qualms in adapting to the corrupt systems in Asia, and I'm not talking about the streetwise Italian businessman ancien regime, I mean everyone, even the "noble" in Scandinavia, and at home they behave well, but in many cases they do abroad. Here in Asia sow bribes like everybody altir. All this and more, to remain in the market. Among all, this is the biggest challenge, because it is difficult to change the system from outside (after all, Asia is far away, and now the funds that move the business firmly in the hands of eastern Asia), for this the priority must be to curb the influence at any cost of such systems on European practices, and ensure that Europe is to bring its systems in Asia, not the other way. In practice, the opposite of what has happened in Italy, where the North was to industrialize the South, but this has never happened. Instead, too often has been the North to find it more convenient to adapt to the modus operandi of the mafia, imported from South
6 - Concept of "Limited Company". Currently: Business phase resistance. Prospective development: identification of the limits in terms of corporate capital, credit, and human resources are in development as possible. Third stage: development of the "Business Resilience" (In physics, resilience refers to the resistance of a material with respect to external tensile strength. The concept, however, is exportable to other contexts. From Wikipedia "the ability of a system to adapt to the conditions of use and to resist wear in order to ensure availability of services. The frames of reference are those relating to business continuity and disaster recovery. Synonyms of resilience are: flexibility, mobility. It is also defined as an amount of skill, adaptability active and flexibility to adopt new behaviors once it was found that the above do not work. There is a contextual adaptability passive, meaning the possibility of being able to accept situations over which we can not do anything without continuing to evaluate them negatively, but learning from them or, more simply, devote to them. "). In the climate of globalization has for too long discussed "the possibility of development without limits." This concept has proved false and misleading. The priority now is to identify the limits, not the illusory belief in their absence.
7 - Emergency Acquisitions. Contrary to the dubious morality of post-bankruptcy acquisition or acquisitions aggressive corporate, acquisition of emergency in terms of global crisis is to be seen as an alternative to the loss of jobs. The sine qua non necessarily have to be as non-closure of the acquired company and the maintenance of as many jobs as possible.
